![]() The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is officially calling for a 60% chance of La Niña weakening further and disappearing by June, but long-term pattern forecasts like this are notoriously difficult. There is less coverage of the red color – which indicates “extreme” to “exceptional” drought – in the more recent map above. The state’s soil drought status is not as bad in March 2021 as it was in March 2011. But all it takes is a couple of weeks of dry, sunny weather for that to change. ![]() ![]() But, at the same time, know that you can survive.”Ĭurrent soil drought status in Central Texas is not as bad as it was during spring 2011. “We’ve experienced it before,” Webb said. While we wait and hope for the rain we need, Bastrop residents like the Webbs are ready for whatever Mother Nature may bring. Everything is at least somewhat green right now … but it can turn the other way pretty quickly.” It sets the foundation for what kind of summer we’re probably going to have. “Everybody should really pay attention to the March, April and May rainfall,” Yura from the National Weather Service said. That may mean less rain and fewer storms overall, but those that do form could be more severe. We would go on to lose 35 more feet off the level of the lake that summer, triggering tight water restrictions and leading to fights over water rights between local residents and downstream rice farmers.Īs of March 2021, official outlooks are calling for a high likelihood of weather that’s hotter and drier than normal for April, May and June. #Weather up austin tx fullAt 23 feet below full elevation, Lake Travis is only at 68% capacity, and even lower than it was during March 2011. The level of Lake Travis, which supplies our drinking water, is showing warning signs as well. “Five, six, seven, eight,” Gibbon counted from his phone during our interview, tallying a total of 10 small fires in Austin on just one windy day last week. “If we don’t get the rainfall that we need in the spring, summer is going to be an all-hands-on deck summer,” Gibbon said.Īnd, things have already been picking up for Gibbon and his team. His department started preparing for this fire season last year as they picked up on the impending La Niña. “Historically, we see an uptick in wildland fires during a La Niña cycle.” “We’re seeing similar drying trends,” Gibbon said. Lieutenant Steve Gibbon, an Austin Fire Department wildland firefighter, is having flashbacks to 2011. Austin is missing one-third of its normal year-to-date rainfall as of late March, and parts of Central Texas have recorded less than half of their normal rainfall over the last six months. In Texas, that storm system failed to deliver the soaking rainfall our soil desperately needs. Patrick’s Day, a sign that severe weather season is already ramping up. #Weather up austin tx seriesThe cold snap and series of winter storms killed at least 57 Texans and left some without power and water for weeks.Īt least 27 confirmed tornadoes hit the Deep South on St. And, the same series of weather events are occurring.įebruary 2021 brought a blast of Arctic air even colder than 2011 - the coldest that Austin has seen in 31 years. Today, La Niña is in a similar position, weakening after a moderate to strong winter event. It was seen in 2011 (KXAN Illustration) Happening now The re-intensification of La Niña is known as a double-dip. “Seven out of the historical La Niñas have double-dipped” - meaning more of them do than don’t. ![]() “The double-dip La Niña is definitely a documented phenomenon,” Arcodia said. This re-intensification is called a “double-dip.” Later that year as it appeared La Niña was going away, it instead intensified again, extending our drought. Arcodia says that La Niñas typically shift the jet stream north of Texas, taking the rain with it.īut when storms do come, research shows that we see more hail and tornadoes in the Central U.S., including in parts of Texas. La Niña patterns have far-reaching impacts on weather patterns, since the ocean and the air are closely intertwined. “La Niña is determined by the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific,” explained Marybeth Arcodia, a PhD candidate at the University of Miami who studies the natural phenomenon. (KXAN Illustration)Īustin’s temperature that summer was five degrees Fahrenheit hotter than average - an enormous margin in the world of meteorology.Ī National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, study the following year found one degree of that was attributed to climate change, while the other four were caused by a persistent La Niña pattern. A NOAA study found one degree of that was from climate change and the other four were caused by a persistent La Niña pattern. Austin’s temperature was 5° hotter than average in 2011. ![]()
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